Unless you’re in Seattle – this year’s Super Bowl didn’t leave us much to talk about football-wise. So let’s look at the Super Bowl from a Las Vegas perspective.
When the Seattle/Denver opponents were decided, Vegas odds-makers issued a “line” at Seattle minus 2 – meaning Seattle was favored by 2 points. Bet on Seattle, and to win the bet – Seattle would have to prevail by more than two points. Bet on Denver, they’d have to win – or lose by less than two points for the wager to pay off.
Betting “lines” appear to imply that Vegas odds-makers have some insight as to who’s going to win the game and by how much. In reality – they haven’t a clue, nor do they care. Rather, they rely on us thinking we know who’s going to win and by how much.
The line is established for the sole purpose of attracting an equal number of dollars waged on each side of the bet. Since Vegas takes a 10% rake of the winning bets – they get paid either way and are completely disinterested in the outcome. The reason lines “move” up to kickoff, is to attract dollars to the “short” side of the bet.
Wall Street works the same way. The broker has little clue which way markets will go – and from a purely financial point of view – is disinterested. They get paid either way. All they need to win – is volatility, which accelerates the pace at which we (often at their suggestion) make new “bets” by moving money from one investment to another.
Now long term of course, they have to be interested in the outcome so you and I don’t fire them. But since – over the long term, markets always move up – their ultimate “outcome risk” is very small. They’re like the weatherman – they get paid tomorrow even when they’re wrong today.
It’s a lousy way to build wealth – and the only reason we do it that way is because we buy into the Wall Street charade of “that’s how the game works.” It doesn’t have to be that way – but to discover how to become the “House” (and win every time) – takes some research and an open mind.
I can show you how – just ask!